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Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

EARLY MODEL DATA INDICATING POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA - POSSIBLY SLIDING INTO EASTERN QUEENSLAND........COULD THE RAIN BE FINALLY COMING??

​Nope....this image has nothing to do with the dribble we have seen on some Social Media pages over the past few days. This is a completely different year :) ( some may not get what Im talking about LOL )  Early model data is starting to suggest the REASONABLE probabilities of a Tropical Low forming in the GOC sometime between Boxing day and New Years Eve...This makes us just a little bit excited! Considering the extreme lack of rainfall over Eastern Queensland, especially CQ and NQ I perso...
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  20041 Hits
20041 Hits

TROPICAL LOW SET TO FORM BETWEEN DARWIN AND KALUMBURU - LONGER TERM TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS TO WESTERN AUSTRALIA

​A very interesting week ahead weather wise across the Tropics. A Tropical Low is set to form somewhere along a weak Monsoonal Trough in the next 24-48 hours, most likely between Darwin/Tiwi Islands, and Kalumburu. The majority of modelling is moving the system over the next week to the WSW-SW, while slowly intensifying....... IF it can move over the warm soupy waters of the Indian Ocean!  OCC is currently going over the modelling, and if we can see more clear cut modelling to suggest a Tro...
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  11026 Hits
11026 Hits

The Top End and Darwin week ahead

Well folks the models have firmed significantly in these last few days, because it's nearly Christmas and the word 'cyclone' likes to be thrown around a bit especially around Darwin we thought it would be a good time to give a quick run down of current modelling and what to expect in the Top End, particularly Darwin this coming week. As most of our subscribers would already be aware, we do have a low expected to form either just to the North of NW of the Tiwi Islands and begin to ...
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  9290 Hits
9290 Hits

THE WEEK AHEAD

​A strengthening monsoon, and a probable Tropical Cyclone will dominate the weather headlines next week as we lead into Christmas. Here's an overview of what to expect. ​THE THREE LOW PRESSURE AREAS Did you know our OCC Subscribers gain access to a monthly video outlook twice a week? We look at tropical cyclones, and rainfall anomalies over the coming month. Become an OCC Subscriber today and support our work while gaining access to these long term valuable outlooks available exclusive...
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  13847 Hits
13847 Hits

MODEL CONCENSUS DEVELOPING - TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF WA COAST NEXT WEEK

The monsoon trough is strengthening and moving towards Australia. A Tropical Cyclone is likely to form in the waters north of Western Australia next week according to the current model consensus. Between 70 and 80% of the Euro ensemble and 80 - 90% of the GFS ensemble show a Tropical Cyclone forming off the Kimberley coast and tracking south-west. It is too early to definitively say where the system will hit or even IF the system will hit the coast.   The initial LOW forms over or just...
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  13626 Hits
13626 Hits

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?
​As we get closer to the onset of the Australian monsoon, models continue to develop a monsoonal LOW and then many of them intensify it into a Tropical Cyclone. However the big questions is where? and the equally big question, given that its Christmas time is WHEN?  So here is what we can speculate/infer/forecast/(add your own guess type word in here) based on current weather computer models.  ​ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE - #1 IN THE WEATHER FORECAST WORLD Become a subscriber and we'll ...
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16043 Hits

IS THE MONSOON PREPARING TO DELIVER A CHRISTMAS PACKAGE?

So have you been naughty or nice?  Sorry to be the Grinch, but chances are the Weather Gods won't care. Over the weekend the monsoon trough will drift south and then become more active next week. Along the monsoon trough we will quite likely see 3 - 4 LOW pressure systems in the Australian Area Of Responsibility. ​Near Cocos Island  South of Indonesia In the Timor Sea Near the Solomons Numbers 2 and 3 are likely to deepen and one of those two could bring an unwanted wind...
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  23815 Hits
23815 Hits

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016
​Good morning everyone, We have record breaking rain in WA, monsoons, LOWS heavy showers and storms all to talk about today across the three northern states and Territories in your subscriber state weather updates.  To become an OCC subscriber and gain access to all the graphics shown on these videos and the daily videos themselves, head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Subscribers don't forget we go into some deep detail about the future Western Australian cyclone and what we can e...
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  6549 Hits
6549 Hits

CYCLONE THREAT TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK

Earlier this afternoon, the Bureau Of Meteorology in Perth issued its daily update on Western Australian Tropical Cyclone development stating that with the monsoon trough expected to drift southwards, "the risk increases next weekend for a tropical system to develop south of the Indonesian Archipelago."  Did you know that our subscribers have known about this LOW pressure signal now for over two weeks? Become an OCC subscriber and gain access to reliable longer term cyclone outloo...
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  18679 Hits
18679 Hits

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME IN QUEENSLAND

After a great day of showers and storms across the Central and Northern parts of Queensland today, more are expected over the next few days as we can see on the map above. Widespread regions of Eastern Queensland are expected to see over 10mm of rain this week with isolated areas receiving over 100mm for the week. Today we witnessed many falls around 5-10mm with isolated falls over 50mm in some convective cells in Central Queensland. Become an OCC member and find out whe...
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  10096 Hits
10096 Hits

THE WEEK AHEAD - PRE-MONSOONAL PHASE

Next week will be characterised by a pre-monsoonal weather pattern across Northern Australia. That means deep tropical maritime easterly winds will push scattered showers into tropical Queensland, while thunderstorm activity will become more active across the Northern parts of NT and the Peninsula of Queensland.  A monsoon trough will begin drifting southwards next weekend through the Banda and Java Seas and looks likely to spawn a weak LOW near the Top End coastline around Friday (16)...
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14147 Hits

WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND

The combination of a deep moist easterly stream, a surface trough and upper trough are expected to create strong and widespread showers and thunderstorms across Queensland's Eastern half. rainfall totals above for the next 7 days suggest many parts of the state should receive more than 25mm (dark greens)with isolated parts in Central Queensland expecting over 100mm (yellows). There is likely to be severe potential with storms on Friday  particularly in areas that get some heating ...
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19017 Hits

BOM UPGRADE CYCLONE POTENTIAL FOR WA LOW

​Today's Cyclone outlook update from the Bureau of Meteorology in Western Australia has upgraded the potential for a Tropical LOW south of Bali to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone to Moderate by Thursday. That means it has a 2-5 chance out of 10 to become a Tropical Cyclone while it has a 5-8 chance out of 10 to remain a Tropical LOW.  Whether it becomes a Tropical Cyclone or remains a Tropical LOW, it is unlikely to directly impact the Western Australian coastline.  There are si...
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9619 Hits

TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR BALI AND MOVES INTO WA WATERS

Late yesterday a tropical LOW formed just to the south of Bali and has drifted southwards this morning to lie in Northern Western Australian waters. The LOW currently is situated in a favourable environment for further development but it is a very oval shaped (elongated) circulation therefore rapid deepening is not expected despite the reasonably favourable environmental conditions surrounding it.  The system is expected to drift either south or south-west and may deepen slightly over ...
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7710 Hits

TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ON MONDAY

A Tropical LOW is set to form on Sunday night or Monday near Java and track in a southerly direction into Western Australian waters during the week. The LOW will develop a little through the week and has been given a LOW (5-20%) probability of intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone by mid week. At this stage the LOW is not expected to hit the Western Australian coast even if it does form into a Tropical Cyclone, but it will set a chain reaction of events that should drag the monsoon trough southwa...
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15617 Hits

CORAL SEA CYCLONE POTENTIAL UPGRADED

The Bureau Of Meteorology has just upgraded the potential of the LOW South-West of the Solomons to develop into a Tropical Cyclone to between 20-50%, up from less than 5% yesterday. Basically that means given a similar type LOW in a similar environment we would expect a tropical cyclone to form between 2 and 5 times out of 10 whereas we would expect a Tropical Cyclone not to form between 5 - 8 times out of 10.  Yet again we need to stress that whether or not the LOW becomes Australia's firs...
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20411 Hits

CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT

CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT
​Overnight convection has exploded near the location of a developing Tropical LOW South-West of the Solomon Islands. The LOW which was expected to form on Friday night took its time to get started, but strong convergence formed along a trough line in the Solomons region yesterday and a small circulation formed south-west of the island nation overnight. Check out the 12 hour loop to see how the convective explosion took place. The system is likely to deepen a little over the next few days as...
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29667 Hits

STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016

STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016
THIS IS SUBSCRIBER CONTENT BUT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC AS PART OF OUR 'EVERY 2 WEEK PUBLIC RELEASE INITIATIVE'  Morning folks, just, today's updates are a little late. I got a little carried away with a couple of monthly forecasts. Looks like a very interesting back half of December (contrary to that very bad news the BoM gave us on their imagery yesterday) more on that in the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE update on the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE PAGE  Today we have CQ storms and SE Gu...
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5057 Hits

SECOND CORAL SEA LOW OF 2016/17 FORMS THIS WEEKEND

​A new LOW is set to form in the Coral Sea on Friday night. The LOW is yet again expected to remain well offshore from the Queensland coast. The LOW is not expected to form into a Tropical Cyclone, but may deepen slightly over the weekend as it heads south. So once again please don't go stressing out about it if you hear it mentioned on mainstream media. Below we have four of the world's best computer forecast models and their track and intensity forecasts for this upcoming Coral Sea LOW up...
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9855 Hits

DARWIN NAILED WITH ALMOST 100MM

Wow what a night for Darwinians, many city suburbs were smashed with close to 100mm overnight and this morning from a strong line of overnight showers and storms.  Falls to 9AM this morning across the city included: ​Leanyer - 98mm The Hospital - 95mm Airport - 82mm Gunn Point - 97mm The Chase - 47mm It's been a cracking few days of rain and storms across the region with some moderate to heavy falls reported on Sunday from stuff that happened overnight Saturday.  There's plenty more to...
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  6000 Hits
6000 Hits