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Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
Tropical LOW 94S is currently located about 150 - 200km to the ESE of Broome and is expected to track slightly west overnight to lie a little closer to the major Kimberley town by morning. As it pushes to the west or west-south-west overnight, the system is expected to whip up winds of 20-30 knots with squally gusts to 40 knots particularly early tomorrow morning. The model below shows winds whipping up between 5 and 8AM tomorrow morning on the Western Kimberley as the LOW makes its closest...
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  6485 Hits
6485 Hits

HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW

​It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the  OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below. ​For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven...
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  9494 Hits
9494 Hits

WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?

The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.&nb...
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  18342 Hits
18342 Hits

WILL ALFRED GIVE WA A GOOD BLOW?

​After a disappointingly weak and short effort from Yvette, Alfred is the next cab off the Aussie cyclone ranks. But does WA have a chance of getting a decent blow from Alfred over the next week?  The short answer is yes there is a chance that Alfred can develop during the week and yes there is a chance he can hit the WA coast. But is it a decent chance? The jury is out on that one. Read on if you're keen to find out more.  A Tropical LOW is currently over land in t...
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  11101 Hits
11101 Hits

TOP END TO COP A DRENCHING

​The NT low is on the move north and can be clearly seen on the OCC weather centres 500m Visible satellite image loop. At this stage the low is just to the south of Katherine but has shown signs of accelerating north. As a consequence of the low moving closer, the monsoonal flow over Darwin and the western Top End finally has a 'trigger' again and the weather should begin to deteriorate quite rapidly this evening and continue for the next few days. ​The image below shows how the low is effective...
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  11888 Hits
11888 Hits

WET START TO 2017 EXPECTED

As the sun sets on the final day of 2016, for many of us in the North, the year  will be remembered as a very dull, dry and uninteresting one weather wise. The good news is that 2017 is set to kick off with a bang across much of Northern Australia. The monsoon is set to create at least a couple LOW pressure systems and ensure that most if not all of Northern Australia gets a nice drink to start the year off in the next week to 10 days. The image above shows the widespread nature of the...
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  19700 Hits
19700 Hits

MONSOON TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND 2-3 LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

As we can see in the image above widespread heavy falls of rain are expected over the next 10 days due to the redevelopment and intensification of the monsoon trough. Along the trough we see anywehere between one and three tropical LOWS forming in the next 10 days.  Their locations are likely to be: ​Barkly region of NT near Tennant Creek tracking north-west towards the Western Top End. If this system gets off the coast of the NT or Kimberley, it may develop into a Tropical Cyclone mid...
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  24868 Hits
24868 Hits

THE NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW HAS FORMED

A LOW has formed in the Barkly region of the Northern Territory near Tennant Creek  in the past few hours and will begin tracking in a northerly direction over the next 2 days. The Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin mention that the LOW is likely to develop further if it moves over water late in the weekend.  Find out more about this LOW and its long term cyclone potential by supporting our work and becoming an OCC subscriber at www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Watch a high res ...
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  10662 Hits
10662 Hits

Monsoon Trough continues to strengthen

Monsoonal conditions continuing to establish themselves across the Top End and the Gulf. It even looks as though a low is trying to get itself organised to the south of Katherine but still early days yet. Models agree on an active Monsoon for the NT Coast but still a little uncertainty with regard to where any lows will initially form.  Any lows that do form over the Top End are likely to take an initial NW track with some modelling going for a deepening one in the Joseph Bonapart...
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  18266 Hits
18266 Hits

MONSOON LOWS TO FORM FOR QLD AND THE NT

Model comparisons showing the NT and QLD LOW's on Jan 2 2017 ​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory.  Models are still in general di...
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  28142 Hits
28142 Hits

MONSOON TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO QLD AND THE NT

The monsoon is getting set for a re-appearance across Northern Australia and while the NT has already benefited from it, it looks as though far Northern Queensland will get to join in the fun as well this time around.  Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten is weakening near the Philippines and once it dies, a strong burst of monsoonal NE winds will cross the equator and become our next burst of the Aussie NW monsoon. This is all set to take place starting around Mid-week and by the end of the week, the...
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  55601 Hits
55601 Hits

NOCK-TEN DOWNGRADED - MANILA SPARED FROM THE WORST

Great news as this morning as land interaction a track a little further south than initially forecast have resulted in a downgrade of the winds to be experienced over downtown Manila later today.  Nock-Ten was a Cat 5 with winds estimated by the JTWC to be gusting to 305km/hr and a pressure of 915Hpa has since been downgraded after crossing some of the rugged terrain of the Philippines.  At this stage downtown Manila should experience sustained northerly winds of 20-30 knots ...
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  4458 Hits
4458 Hits

HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ON QUEENSLAND'S CENTRAL COAST

The combination of an upper trough and surface convergence has resulted in some significant rainfall on the Central Queensland coastline over the past 24 hours.  The BoM graphic below shows some big falls occurring with some of the most notable ones being  Bundy - 139mm (with various locations around the city picking up to 160mm) Cooran - 105mm Gympie - 54mm Middlemount - 50mm Widespread 20-50mm rain fell in SEQ yesterday as well.  More moderate to possibly heavy falls are expecte...
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  12412 Hits
12412 Hits

WILD NIGHT AHEAD FOR THE PHILIPPINES AS CAT 5 CYCLONE BEARS DOWN

Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten remains a very strong Category 5 system as it approaches the Philippines tonight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre estimates that the system packs wind gusts to 305km/hr. The system is likely to pass very close to Manila tomorrow afternoon and still maintain around a Category Three intensity. Nock Ten is reported to be the strongest late-season Tropical Cyclone recorded in the region in over 50 years (since TC Susan in 1963).  The satellite estimated minimum pressu...
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  11597 Hits
11597 Hits

OCC'S FACEBOOK CHRISTMAS PRIZE GIVEAWAY

Morning folks and MERRY CHRISTMAS from Santa Nitso and the team here at OCC. Today we are gifting 5 free subscriptions to our OCC Eyewall membership service. You can find out more about our service here or take a look at our comparison chart below CHRISTMAS FACEBOOK GIVEAWAY QUIZ RULES OCC is offering 5 chances to win a free 12-month subscription to our Eyewall membership service. 5 questions will be posted through Christmas Day - answer any of them correctly and you go into the draw to win. 1 -...
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  2760 Hits
2760 Hits

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN TO HIT PHILIPPINES CHRISTMAS AND BOXING DAY

While Australia struggles to create a simple weak Tropical Cyclone, The Northern Hemisphere is giving us a lesson in strong tropical cyclogenesis as one of the strongest Tropical Cyclones of the year in the North-West Pacific is set to make landfall over the Philippines on Christmas night/Boxing Day. Now for those unaware, Boxing Day is pretty much the middle of the Northern Hemisphere Winter, that's almost like (but not quite the same) as a Cat 5 whacking the NT in June. Pretty crazy huh? Due t...
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  8812 Hits
8812 Hits

EX CYCLONE YVETTE TO HIT THE COAST NEAR BROOME ON CHRISTMAS DAY

​Tropical Cyclone Yvette was downgraded to a Tropical LOW and the Cyclone Watch for the West Kimberley and Eastern Pilbara has been lifted, however the system is still likely to pack a reasonable punch to its north as it makes landfall tomorrow. The Bureau Of Meteorology are predicting gale force wind gusts could accompany any squally showers and storms making their way onto the West Kimberley coastline tomorrow, but these conditions will be limited to the north of the LOW pressure system's...
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  4238 Hits
4238 Hits

WEAK SOLOMON ISLANDS LOW TO DRIFT SOUTH

A weak LOW is forming in the Solomon Sea and is expected to move in a southerly direction for the remainder of this week and into the weekend. It is likely to deepen slightly but computer models do not deepen it enough to become a Tropical Cyclone.  Once the LOW decays, the remnant surface trough/circulation may move west towards Queensland and enhance shower activity across the Southern and Central coasts of the state next week.  A new LOW is likely to form along a re-invigorated...
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  8041 Hits
8041 Hits

CHRISTMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS LIKELY

​Earlier this afternoon, Tropical Cyclone Yvette was born off the coast of Western Australia. The system has been steadily gaining strength through the day lying on the edge of a very favourable atmosphere and a very unfavourable one. The cyclone will now be slow moving for the next 24-48 hours before adopting a south-easterly track towards the East Pilbara or Western Kimberley. At current model projections, this system appears to make landfall right on Christmas Day. There is plenty of disagree...
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  11536 Hits
11536 Hits

STRONG STORMS LIKELY IN SEQ THIS AFTERNOON

A surface trough mixed with some cooler upper level air will combine to produce some strong storms in South-East Queensland today. The Severe Weather Threat Index shows values of 300+ being met this afternoon/evening just inland of the South-East coast and with the cooling upper atmosphere we should see some large hail around today along with the possibility for damaging winds and heavy rain.  The storm steering winds should keep most of the stronger storms just inland of the coast but...
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  7644 Hits
7644 Hits