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Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

MODELS PREDICT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN QUEENSLAND NEXT WEEK

​A monsoon will develop next week and a LOW will form along it in the Gulf Of Carpentaria and it will likely move to the east. Some models also predict the possibility of a secondary circulation near the North Queensland coastline.  Shown above are the early estimates from the OCF for rain amounts. These rain amounts are primarily occurring from the 15th March  Individual models are predicting isolated pockets of 300-500mm/day across the North coast with general falls of 50+mm/day...
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18809 Hits

Todays forecast and look ahead.

​Good morning everyone. We have for you below 3 graphics which we will go through. First of all is todays rainfall forecast supplied by the BoM with a corresponding MSLP chart, and the other section includes the rainfall forecast for the 14th to the 17th of this month. As nitso pointed out in the previous post, there are potentially exciting times on the way for northern QLD.  ​As you can see, the trough system through inland Australia remains active today bringing widespread showers and st...
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6632 Hits

MONSOON LOW IN THE GULF NOW LIKELY AND MOVEMENT INTO QUEENSLAND POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

​As we mentioned yesterday, the monsoon is arriving early next week and with it a Tropical LOW is expected to form. It is becoming increasingly likely that this LOW will form in the Gulf Of carpentaria and then track SE or ESE into Queensland. The LOW is expected to bring heavy falls to the Gulf, Western Peninsula and the NE Coast of Queensland.  The Euro and GFS modelling is quite interesting with both computer models showing two possible LOWS in similar locations. One in the Gulf and one ...
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24646 Hits

Great rain for Townsville but it's not filling the dam :(

Once again we've seen some awesome rain for Townsville but that rain hasn't extended west far enough to flow into the Ross River Dam.  Shown below is the updated rainfall observations chart until 6AM this morning (March 10) for the previous 20 hour period.  While it's so great to see the rain around a city which has just gotten through its driest year in history, the rain is a very short term quick fix solution and its benefits will be forgotten in less than a week from now becaus...
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5055 Hits

March an active time for cyclones.

​Whilst this season has been very quiet, it is important not to become complacent as March is typically a very active time for cyclones. Not only is it an active time in terms of numbers, but the intesnsity of March systems tend to be higher. Two examples of severe systems that were impacting upon Australia around this date in the past were Severe TC Ingrid and Severe TC George.  Before we give a brief rundown on Ingrid and George, we found this interesting graphic below showing the increas...
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6716 Hits

LOW TO FORM ON A DEVELOPING MONSOON TROUGH NEXT WEEK

A weak monsoon trough is set to form across far Northern Australia early next week. Computer models indicate that a Tropical LOW will form along that trough line. The favoured location for the initial formation of that LOW appear to be at the base of the Top End of the NT, the LOW should then push east towards the Gulf Of Carpentaria/Queensland and slowly deepen.  Above is the Euro Ensemble showing the favoured area of that LOW's position next Friday morning. However you can also see a...
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24810 Hits

MJO outlook.

​Good evening all. As you all know we like to keep an eye out on the progression of the MJO signal. This is a vital component (though not the only one) in helping us to forecast active tropical weather phases. Modelling is becoming more keen on a monsoonal burst developing across the north mid to late this month. As some of our video updates have already mentioned, there is an increasing likelihood of low pressure development associated with this.  Some models forecast the MJO signal t...
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Extreme Rainfall along the Queensland Coast

Some extreme rainfall around the Queensland Coast over the last 7 days, with some places receiving over 700mm of rain. We'll list all rainfall totals above 200mm as per official BoM records. ​As you can see from the above Accumulated Rainfall Map courtesy of BoM there was a heavy concentration of rainfall around the Lucinda and Mackay areas. From the official BoM rainfall tables, here are all rainfall totals up until 9am this morning that show every location that received 200mm or more. MOUNT JU...
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12820 Hits

OCC Tuesday Subscriber Updates - Completed

Subscribers, your video updates for Tuesday have been completed and are now available on your state pages and on the "Future Aussie Cyclones" page QUEENSLAND UPDATE Widespread showers continuing along the coast, but clearing slowly northwards as the week progresses and into the weekend.  A Monsoon develops next week and dumps big falls  find out where  A LOW could form in 2 areas near Queensland next week - find out where.  Another LOW may track westwards from New Caledonia t...
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1288 Hits

Final Monsoonal burst of 2016

Computer models indicate one final burst of the monsoon is expected to hit Northern Australia mid to late this month.

A Tropical LOW looks set to form near the Top WEnd or in the Gulf Of Carpentaria towards the back end of next week. Currently we see evidence of a 30-40% chance that this LOW will reach tropical cyclone intensity, however the favoured option remains for the LOW to stay monsoonal in structure with the strongest winds located well away from the centre.

Early model predictions show that the LOW is favoured to shift eastwards across the Gulf towards Queensland's Western Peninsula

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2077 Hits