Welcome to Oz Cyclone Chasers!

You are currently not logged in. To view subscription content you will need to login by clicking 'Login' at the top, or to see what is included in our subscriptions you can click 'Subscribe' at the top.

Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.
Chris was born in Northern Greece and came to Australia as a young boy. He initially lived in Sydney and in 1988 was amazed by a very intense hail storm that smashed his house. This hailstorm had torn off the roof, blown out the windows of his house and left his family in complete shock, all with almost no warning. Since that day, Chris Nitsopoulos... (Nitso) has been passionate about studying the weather and learning about what makes thunderstorms tick in order to better understand and forecast them. Upon completing his high school education in Townsville, he went on to James Cook university to begin a degree in Meteorology. Unfortunately Chris could not grasp the intricate mathematical formulas behind the physics involved in meteorology and changed degrees with a year left in his meteorology degree. He completed a degree in Secondary School education majoring in Geography and ironically enough, minoring in mathematics and physics. Nitso successfully taught Geography, Science, Mathematics and Physical Education for 5 years before dropping his full time teaching load to pursue a small business goal which could give him a lot more time off and help fund his storm chasing. In 2010, Nitso began a business selling sports shoes and supplements online. In 2013, Nitso shut down that business and now works primarily on Oz Cyclone Chasers and does a couple of days supply teaching at a couple of Catholic schools in Townsville The fact that his workload was far reduced allowed him to pursue his burning desire to chase tropical cyclones. Even though Chris never completed his Meteorology degree, his passion for studying the weather and in particular severe weather systems has never diminished. During the dry season you would normally see Chris spending much of his spare time burying his head in old meteorology books or online researching meteorological studies from around the world. Chris enjoys and learns from every storm chase regardless of its success/failure, in fact Chris believes that in storm chasing you learn more from a failed chase or a failed forecast because it drives you to learn why you got it wrong and to strive to get it right next time. Chris is a registered storm spotter with the Bureau of Meteorology, he is a trained first aid officer and a qualified gym instructor. Chris also enjoys refereeing Rugby League and Rugby Union part time in the Winter months and says that he would go crazy with boredom and weigh 200kg if he didn’t have a hobby like refereeing to keep him fit and busy in the months between April and October.  Chris is in charge of all of our subscriber services at OCC.  More

WILD NIGHT AHEAD FOR THE PHILIPPINES AS CAT 5 CYCLONE BEARS DOWN

Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten remains a very strong Category 5 system as it approaches the Philippines tonight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre estimates that the system packs wind gusts to 305km/hr. The system is likely to pass very close to Manila tomorrow afternoon and still maintain around a Category Three intensity. Nock Ten is reported to be the strongest late-season Tropical Cyclone recorded in the region in over 50 years (since TC Susan in 1963).  The satellite estimated minimum pressu...
Continue reading
  11634 Hits
11634 Hits

OCC'S FACEBOOK CHRISTMAS PRIZE GIVEAWAY

Morning folks and MERRY CHRISTMAS from Santa Nitso and the team here at OCC. Today we are gifting 5 free subscriptions to our OCC Eyewall membership service. You can find out more about our service here or take a look at our comparison chart below CHRISTMAS FACEBOOK GIVEAWAY QUIZ RULES OCC is offering 5 chances to win a free 12-month subscription to our Eyewall membership service. 5 questions will be posted through Christmas Day - answer any of them correctly and you go into the draw to win. 1 -...
Continue reading
  2796 Hits
2796 Hits

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN TO HIT PHILIPPINES CHRISTMAS AND BOXING DAY

While Australia struggles to create a simple weak Tropical Cyclone, The Northern Hemisphere is giving us a lesson in strong tropical cyclogenesis as one of the strongest Tropical Cyclones of the year in the North-West Pacific is set to make landfall over the Philippines on Christmas night/Boxing Day. Now for those unaware, Boxing Day is pretty much the middle of the Northern Hemisphere Winter, that's almost like (but not quite the same) as a Cat 5 whacking the NT in June. Pretty crazy huh? Due t...
Continue reading
  8848 Hits
8848 Hits

EX CYCLONE YVETTE TO HIT THE COAST NEAR BROOME ON CHRISTMAS DAY

​Tropical Cyclone Yvette was downgraded to a Tropical LOW and the Cyclone Watch for the West Kimberley and Eastern Pilbara has been lifted, however the system is still likely to pack a reasonable punch to its north as it makes landfall tomorrow. The Bureau Of Meteorology are predicting gale force wind gusts could accompany any squally showers and storms making their way onto the West Kimberley coastline tomorrow, but these conditions will be limited to the north of the LOW pressure system's...
Continue reading
  4275 Hits
4275 Hits

WEAK SOLOMON ISLANDS LOW TO DRIFT SOUTH

A weak LOW is forming in the Solomon Sea and is expected to move in a southerly direction for the remainder of this week and into the weekend. It is likely to deepen slightly but computer models do not deepen it enough to become a Tropical Cyclone.  Once the LOW decays, the remnant surface trough/circulation may move west towards Queensland and enhance shower activity across the Southern and Central coasts of the state next week.  A new LOW is likely to form along a re-invigorated...
Continue reading
  8073 Hits
8073 Hits

CHRISTMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS LIKELY

​Earlier this afternoon, Tropical Cyclone Yvette was born off the coast of Western Australia. The system has been steadily gaining strength through the day lying on the edge of a very favourable atmosphere and a very unfavourable one. The cyclone will now be slow moving for the next 24-48 hours before adopting a south-easterly track towards the East Pilbara or Western Kimberley. At current model projections, this system appears to make landfall right on Christmas Day. There is plenty of disagree...
Continue reading
  11571 Hits
11571 Hits

STRONG STORMS LIKELY IN SEQ THIS AFTERNOON

A surface trough mixed with some cooler upper level air will combine to produce some strong storms in South-East Queensland today. The Severe Weather Threat Index shows values of 300+ being met this afternoon/evening just inland of the South-East coast and with the cooling upper atmosphere we should see some large hail around today along with the possibility for damaging winds and heavy rain.  The storm steering winds should keep most of the stronger storms just inland of the coast but...
Continue reading
  7683 Hits
7683 Hits

THE WEEK AHEAD

​A strengthening monsoon, and a probable Tropical Cyclone will dominate the weather headlines next week as we lead into Christmas. Here's an overview of what to expect. ​THE THREE LOW PRESSURE AREAS Did you know our OCC Subscribers gain access to a monthly video outlook twice a week? We look at tropical cyclones, and rainfall anomalies over the coming month. Become an OCC Subscriber today and support our work while gaining access to these long term valuable outlooks available exclusive...
Continue reading
  13903 Hits
13903 Hits

MODEL CONCENSUS DEVELOPING - TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF WA COAST NEXT WEEK

The monsoon trough is strengthening and moving towards Australia. A Tropical Cyclone is likely to form in the waters north of Western Australia next week according to the current model consensus. Between 70 and 80% of the Euro ensemble and 80 - 90% of the GFS ensemble show a Tropical Cyclone forming off the Kimberley coast and tracking south-west. It is too early to definitively say where the system will hit or even IF the system will hit the coast.   The initial LOW forms over or just...
Continue reading
  13679 Hits
13679 Hits

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?
​As we get closer to the onset of the Australian monsoon, models continue to develop a monsoonal LOW and then many of them intensify it into a Tropical Cyclone. However the big questions is where? and the equally big question, given that its Christmas time is WHEN?  So here is what we can speculate/infer/forecast/(add your own guess type word in here) based on current weather computer models.  ​ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE - #1 IN THE WEATHER FORECAST WORLD Become a subscriber and we'll ...
Continue reading
  16511 Hits
16511 Hits

IS THE MONSOON PREPARING TO DELIVER A CHRISTMAS PACKAGE?

So have you been naughty or nice?  Sorry to be the Grinch, but chances are the Weather Gods won't care. Over the weekend the monsoon trough will drift south and then become more active next week. Along the monsoon trough we will quite likely see 3 - 4 LOW pressure systems in the Australian Area Of Responsibility. ​Near Cocos Island  South of Indonesia In the Timor Sea Near the Solomons Numbers 2 and 3 are likely to deepen and one of those two could bring an unwanted wind...
Continue reading
  23861 Hits
23861 Hits

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016
​Good morning everyone, We have record breaking rain in WA, monsoons, LOWS heavy showers and storms all to talk about today across the three northern states and Territories in your subscriber state weather updates.  To become an OCC subscriber and gain access to all the graphics shown on these videos and the daily videos themselves, head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Subscribers don't forget we go into some deep detail about the future Western Australian cyclone and what we can e...
Continue reading
  6589 Hits
6589 Hits

CYCLONE THREAT TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK

Earlier this afternoon, the Bureau Of Meteorology in Perth issued its daily update on Western Australian Tropical Cyclone development stating that with the monsoon trough expected to drift southwards, "the risk increases next weekend for a tropical system to develop south of the Indonesian Archipelago."  Did you know that our subscribers have known about this LOW pressure signal now for over two weeks? Become an OCC subscriber and gain access to reliable longer term cyclone outloo...
Continue reading
  18745 Hits
18745 Hits

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME IN QUEENSLAND

After a great day of showers and storms across the Central and Northern parts of Queensland today, more are expected over the next few days as we can see on the map above. Widespread regions of Eastern Queensland are expected to see over 10mm of rain this week with isolated areas receiving over 100mm for the week. Today we witnessed many falls around 5-10mm with isolated falls over 50mm in some convective cells in Central Queensland. Become an OCC member and find out whe...
Continue reading
  10133 Hits
10133 Hits

THE WEEK AHEAD - PRE-MONSOONAL PHASE

Next week will be characterised by a pre-monsoonal weather pattern across Northern Australia. That means deep tropical maritime easterly winds will push scattered showers into tropical Queensland, while thunderstorm activity will become more active across the Northern parts of NT and the Peninsula of Queensland.  A monsoon trough will begin drifting southwards next weekend through the Banda and Java Seas and looks likely to spawn a weak LOW near the Top End coastline around Friday (16)...
Continue reading
  14182 Hits
14182 Hits

WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND

The combination of a deep moist easterly stream, a surface trough and upper trough are expected to create strong and widespread showers and thunderstorms across Queensland's Eastern half. rainfall totals above for the next 7 days suggest many parts of the state should receive more than 25mm (dark greens)with isolated parts in Central Queensland expecting over 100mm (yellows). There is likely to be severe potential with storms on Friday  particularly in areas that get some heating ...
Continue reading
  19104 Hits
19104 Hits

BOM UPGRADE CYCLONE POTENTIAL FOR WA LOW

​Today's Cyclone outlook update from the Bureau of Meteorology in Western Australia has upgraded the potential for a Tropical LOW south of Bali to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone to Moderate by Thursday. That means it has a 2-5 chance out of 10 to become a Tropical Cyclone while it has a 5-8 chance out of 10 to remain a Tropical LOW.  Whether it becomes a Tropical Cyclone or remains a Tropical LOW, it is unlikely to directly impact the Western Australian coastline.  There are si...
Continue reading
  9703 Hits
9703 Hits

TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR BALI AND MOVES INTO WA WATERS

Late yesterday a tropical LOW formed just to the south of Bali and has drifted southwards this morning to lie in Northern Western Australian waters. The LOW currently is situated in a favourable environment for further development but it is a very oval shaped (elongated) circulation therefore rapid deepening is not expected despite the reasonably favourable environmental conditions surrounding it.  The system is expected to drift either south or south-west and may deepen slightly over ...
Continue reading
  7768 Hits
7768 Hits

TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ON MONDAY

A Tropical LOW is set to form on Sunday night or Monday near Java and track in a southerly direction into Western Australian waters during the week. The LOW will develop a little through the week and has been given a LOW (5-20%) probability of intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone by mid week. At this stage the LOW is not expected to hit the Western Australian coast even if it does form into a Tropical Cyclone, but it will set a chain reaction of events that should drag the monsoon trough southwa...
Continue reading
  15659 Hits
15659 Hits

CORAL SEA CYCLONE POTENTIAL UPGRADED

The Bureau Of Meteorology has just upgraded the potential of the LOW South-West of the Solomons to develop into a Tropical Cyclone to between 20-50%, up from less than 5% yesterday. Basically that means given a similar type LOW in a similar environment we would expect a tropical cyclone to form between 2 and 5 times out of 10 whereas we would expect a Tropical Cyclone not to form between 5 - 8 times out of 10.  Yet again we need to stress that whether or not the LOW becomes Australia's firs...
Continue reading
  20458 Hits
20458 Hits