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Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.
Chris was born in Northern Greece and came to Australia as a young boy. He initially lived in Sydney and in 1988 was amazed by a very intense hail storm that smashed his house. This hailstorm had torn off the roof, blown out the windows of his house and left his family in complete shock, all with almost no warning. Since that day, Chris Nitsopoulos... (Nitso) has been passionate about studying the weather and learning about what makes thunderstorms tick in order to better understand and forecast them. Upon completing his high school education in Townsville, he went on to James Cook university to begin a degree in Meteorology. Unfortunately Chris could not grasp the intricate mathematical formulas behind the physics involved in meteorology and changed degrees with a year left in his meteorology degree. He completed a degree in Secondary School education majoring in Geography and ironically enough, minoring in mathematics and physics. Nitso successfully taught Geography, Science, Mathematics and Physical Education for 5 years before dropping his full time teaching load to pursue a small business goal which could give him a lot more time off and help fund his storm chasing. In 2010, Nitso began a business selling sports shoes and supplements online. In 2013, Nitso shut down that business and now works primarily on Oz Cyclone Chasers and does a couple of days supply teaching at a couple of Catholic schools in Townsville The fact that his workload was far reduced allowed him to pursue his burning desire to chase tropical cyclones. Even though Chris never completed his Meteorology degree, his passion for studying the weather and in particular severe weather systems has never diminished. During the dry season you would normally see Chris spending much of his spare time burying his head in old meteorology books or online researching meteorological studies from around the world. Chris enjoys and learns from every storm chase regardless of its success/failure, in fact Chris believes that in storm chasing you learn more from a failed chase or a failed forecast because it drives you to learn why you got it wrong and to strive to get it right next time. Chris is a registered storm spotter with the Bureau of Meteorology, he is a trained first aid officer and a qualified gym instructor. Chris also enjoys refereeing Rugby League and Rugby Union part time in the Winter months and says that he would go crazy with boredom and weigh 200kg if he didn’t have a hobby like refereeing to keep him fit and busy in the months between April and October.  Chris is in charge of all of our subscriber services at OCC.  More

CYCLONE OR NOT IT DOESN'T MATTER - PILBARA COAST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LOW END CYCLONIC CONDITIONS

A Tropical LOW is developing near the Kimberley coastline. The LOW will move offshore tomorrow and develop further. On Wednesday the LOW will move south and lie near or on the Pilbara coast. Gales with damaging wind gusts will develop along the Pilbara coast and widespread rain will also accompany these strong winds. Let's take a look at what computer models have to say.  The Euro model has a borderline Category One system making landfall on Wednesday evening near Roebourne with winds ...
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8326 Hits

MONSOON TO FIRE UP WITH MULTIPLE LOWS POSSIBLE

Well by now we should all know that the monsoon is firing up and will create a LOW for Western Australia, but did you know latest computer model outputs from multiple weather models show the Gulf Of Carpentaria joining in on the action with a LOW/cyclone of their own? A couple of models even show a LOW in the Coral Sea off Queensland's North-East coast.  The primary action of course is already showing signs of forming soon near Timor. That first LOW will remain weak and ...
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28991 Hits

ANOTHER LOW FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA

ANOTHER LOW FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA
​The monsoon is regenerating and a LOW will form along it over the next few days most likely in the Timor Sea or on the Top End coastline of the Territory. This LOW is likely to remain weak, broad (large) and slow moving for a few days before moving in a WSW direction next week roughly parallel to the coast. The track seems to be eerily similar to the LOW that just went through last week. Computer models are showing that the LOW will lie in an unfavorable developmental environment...
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16710 Hits

WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND

WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND
A Coral Sea trough system will push west tomorrow and Tuesday, making landfall later on Tuesday or early Wednesday across NE Queensland. This will result in some moderate to heavy falls of rain across the NE Queensland coast over the next few days. Showers begin tomorrow from this feature, but the heavier totals don't arrive until the trough makes it onshore Tuesday/Tuesday night and then are expected to continue into Wednesday before easing off on Thursday. More details in the images ...
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21520 Hits

OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017

OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017
​Good evening everyone, please find below a video update on what is going on with the WA Tropical LOW as it tracks WSW off the Pilbara coastline. The JTWC has officially called this Tropical Cyclone 03S, the Aussie BoM will likely follow suit over the next 12-24 hours and call it Alfred. We will have another public update on January 28 around 7:00PM Queensland time.  For a more comprehensive look at this system and all current and upcoming Aussie cyclones, support our work and become a...
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5781 Hits

STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017
​A Tropical LOW is forming along the Western Gulf Coast and moving into the Northern Territory and could become a Tropical Cyclone off WA late in the week. A weak LOW is also forming in the Northern Coral Sea and another weak one near Christmas Island.  A surface change pushing through Queensland's Central Coast is creating scattered showers and storms, widespread rain in the Territory and a fairly quiet day across W.A today is expected.  Please find your state weather video updates be...
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7203 Hits

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

The monsoon is ready to fire up again with a Tropical LOW likely to form along it early next week. If this LOW can get itself over water then it has reasonable potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. The LOW is likely to form near the Top End coast of the Northern Territory, but as the image shows above there are two possible formation locations on Monday or Tuesday and it is unclear which of these formation locations will become the dominant region for cyclogenesis . The LOW i...
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24937 Hits

TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR MOUNT ISA

A Tropical LOW has formed to the near north of Mount Isa this afternoon and will track into the Northern Territory tomorrow. The LOW will take the heavy showers and thunderstorms away into the Northern Territory with it. The Bureau Of Meteorology in the Northern Territory has issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and flood watches for inland rivers over the next few days. Ensemble modelling shows falls of up to 150mm possible tomorrow across the Barkly Districts of the NT and the Tanami region on ...
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14481 Hits

STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017
TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER VIDEOS HAVE BEEN RELEASED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC  Morning folks,  Wow what a night for the Innisfail/Tully region again... Yet another system formed along a convergence zone. More to come. A LOW hit the Gulf Coast too overnight and is tracking into the NT while we are also watching the Solomons LOW which is now born again and heading towards the Central Coral Sea over the next few days (and maybe Queensland) and the Cocos/Christmas LOW which doesn't know what the hell...
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8136 Hits

TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK

TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK
Hot on the heels of the recent active monsoonal system across the state's north and the Central Queensland trough, two Tropical LOWS are about to operate in the Coral Sea over the next few days. Tropical LOW 96P has formed off the coast of Ingham (North Queensland) while Tropical LOW 97P is forming just north of the Solomon Islands. Their longer term track could be interesting for Queensland.  TROPICAL LOW 96P 96P formed early today off the coast of Ingham. At 4PM it was located at latitude...
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90665 Hits

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
Tropical LOW 94S is currently located about 150 - 200km to the ESE of Broome and is expected to track slightly west overnight to lie a little closer to the major Kimberley town by morning. As it pushes to the west or west-south-west overnight, the system is expected to whip up winds of 20-30 knots with squally gusts to 40 knots particularly early tomorrow morning. The model below shows winds whipping up between 5 and 8AM tomorrow morning on the Western Kimberley as the LOW makes its closest...
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6589 Hits

WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?

The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.&nb...
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18385 Hits

WILL ALFRED GIVE WA A GOOD BLOW?

​After a disappointingly weak and short effort from Yvette, Alfred is the next cab off the Aussie cyclone ranks. But does WA have a chance of getting a decent blow from Alfred over the next week?  The short answer is yes there is a chance that Alfred can develop during the week and yes there is a chance he can hit the WA coast. But is it a decent chance? The jury is out on that one. Read on if you're keen to find out more.  A Tropical LOW is currently over land in t...
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11219 Hits

WET START TO 2017 EXPECTED

As the sun sets on the final day of 2016, for many of us in the North, the year  will be remembered as a very dull, dry and uninteresting one weather wise. The good news is that 2017 is set to kick off with a bang across much of Northern Australia. The monsoon is set to create at least a couple LOW pressure systems and ensure that most if not all of Northern Australia gets a nice drink to start the year off in the next week to 10 days. The image above shows the widespread nature of the...
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19750 Hits

MONSOON TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND 2-3 LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

As we can see in the image above widespread heavy falls of rain are expected over the next 10 days due to the redevelopment and intensification of the monsoon trough. Along the trough we see anywehere between one and three tropical LOWS forming in the next 10 days.  Their locations are likely to be: ​Barkly region of NT near Tennant Creek tracking north-west towards the Western Top End. If this system gets off the coast of the NT or Kimberley, it may develop into a Tropical Cyclone mid...
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24918 Hits

THE NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW HAS FORMED

A LOW has formed in the Barkly region of the Northern Territory near Tennant Creek  in the past few hours and will begin tracking in a northerly direction over the next 2 days. The Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin mention that the LOW is likely to develop further if it moves over water late in the weekend.  Find out more about this LOW and its long term cyclone potential by supporting our work and becoming an OCC subscriber at www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Watch a high res ...
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10739 Hits

MONSOON LOWS TO FORM FOR QLD AND THE NT

Model comparisons showing the NT and QLD LOW's on Jan 2 2017 ​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory.  Models are still in general di...
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28170 Hits

MONSOON TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO QLD AND THE NT

The monsoon is getting set for a re-appearance across Northern Australia and while the NT has already benefited from it, it looks as though far Northern Queensland will get to join in the fun as well this time around.  Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten is weakening near the Philippines and once it dies, a strong burst of monsoonal NE winds will cross the equator and become our next burst of the Aussie NW monsoon. This is all set to take place starting around Mid-week and by the end of the week, the...
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55638 Hits

NOCK-TEN DOWNGRADED - MANILA SPARED FROM THE WORST

Great news as this morning as land interaction a track a little further south than initially forecast have resulted in a downgrade of the winds to be experienced over downtown Manila later today.  Nock-Ten was a Cat 5 with winds estimated by the JTWC to be gusting to 305km/hr and a pressure of 915Hpa has since been downgraded after crossing some of the rugged terrain of the Philippines.  At this stage downtown Manila should experience sustained northerly winds of 20-30 knots ...
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4500 Hits

HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ON QUEENSLAND'S CENTRAL COAST

The combination of an upper trough and surface convergence has resulted in some significant rainfall on the Central Queensland coastline over the past 24 hours.  The BoM graphic below shows some big falls occurring with some of the most notable ones being  Bundy - 139mm (with various locations around the city picking up to 160mm) Cooran - 105mm Gympie - 54mm Middlemount - 50mm Widespread 20-50mm rain fell in SEQ yesterday as well.  More moderate to possibly heavy falls are expecte...
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  12468 Hits
12468 Hits